Same-Sex Marriage, State-by-State

Here's an interesting graphic from The New York Times, showing support for same-sex marriage in 1994-96 and again in 2010 for each state. Crunching the numbers produces the following interesting findings:

• In 1994-96, same-sex marriage enjoyed majority support in exactly zero states. The highest level of support at that time was in New York, with 39% in favor. (A bill to permit same-sex marriage recently died in that state's senate.) In 2010, by contrast, a majority supports same-sex marriage in 17 states - including 5 of the 30 states that have passed constitutional amendments banning gay marriage. Today, pride of place goes to Massachusetts, with 62% in support. In Pennsylvania, support is currently at 51% - better than I would have guessed from Pennsyltucky. (Support in the actual Kentucky is a tepid 31%.)

• Interestingly, support for gay marriage is above 33% (i.e., a third) in a whopping 41 states, including 21 of the 30 states that have passed discriminatory constitutional amendments. That surprised me. In 1994-96, it was above a third in only three states: New York, Rhode Island, and Connecticut. Of those three, however, only Connecticut now recognizes gay marriage - though they are all in the top four of supporters (along with Vermont).

• The average increase over the past 14 to 16 years is 18.12%. (I know, I know, the median increase is the better figure to use here, but I'm lazy.) No state saw a decline in support; every state saw an increase. The greatest increase (29%) came in Massachusetts; the smallest (9%), Alabama - but even there, gay marriage is now supported by 26% of the population. Alabama is as liberal today on this issue as the 23 most liberal states were in 1994-96.

• In those five states that now recognize gay marriage, support has risen by an average of 24.6%. Even in states that have discriminatory constitutional amendments, support for gay marriage has risen by an average of 11.6%. These two facts bolster what conventional wisdom suggests: winning the war for hearts and minds leads to reform, sooner or later. In other words - don't be discouraged by New York, New Jersey, etc.; reform there will come eventually. As for the rest of the states, the focus must be on convincing the public.

• To get a proper gauge on what the "will of the people" is, we would have to know what percentage of people disapprove of gay marriage in each state. But I think it's pretty clear that, unless we're talking about Utah or another one of the knuckle-dragging states, there is no consensus in opposition to gay marriage and a "will of the people" argument against it is a canard. (To say nothing of the fact that majority opinion has diddly-squat to do with fundamental rights anyway.)

• Lastly, these figures do not include the District of Columbia, which approved gay marriage this year.

You know what? After this little exercise, I'm feeling pretty darn good!